8 of the last 10 years, at least one team that finished last place in their division in the NFL has risen from the dead to capture the division title the very next season. One of those two exceptions occurred last year, though the 49ers did make it all the way to Super Bowl 54 after being the second worst team in football (behind Arizona) in 2019. If we rely on historical trends, one or two of eight possible teams is going to accomplish the feat in 2020. Though every team faces a difficult, uphill battle to pull it off, here are three teams with the best chances to do it this coming season.
Washington Redskins
I know, I know. Hear me out. Yes, the Redskins were atrocious last year. They went 3-13 and were pretty pathetic on both sides of the ball. Rookie QB Dwayne Haskins didn’t do a ton to raise the hopes of Washington fans, and the roster wasn’t significantly upgraded this offseason besides the addition of star DE Chase Young. But there are two factors that crack the door open for the Redskins to sneak in and take the NFC East with about 9 wins: Ron Rivera and the collective unreliability of Philadelphia, Dallas, and New York. First off, Rivera is a very good coach. It didn’t end well in Carolina, but that doesn’t take away from his list of accomplishments in his 9 years at the helm: 2 Coach of the Year awards, 3 division titles, and a Super Bowl appearance off of a 15-1 campaign. There’s not many who can overcome Washington’s dysfunctional organization and poor ownership: Rivera has the poise, experience, and leadership to do it. Perhaps the bigger factor here, however, is the volatility of the NFC East. No team has successfully defended its crown in the division since the 2004 Eagles. That’s right: No team has repeated as champions in 16 years. With Philadelphia taking the division last season, the Cowboys seem like the obvious choice to continue this trend after bringing in Mike McCarthy, locking in Dak Prescott for at least this season, and drafting CeeDee Lamb. But this is the Cowboys we’re talking about. Since when have they been reliable for anything other than a chokejob in the playoffs every few seasons? No, it wouldn’t be surprising for Dallas to go 12-4, but would anyone really be shocked if they went 8-8 again? The Cowboys have practically patented the 8-8 season. So, if both the Eagles and Cowboys falter as they did last season, is it likely the Redskins will win the East? No. But, is it possible? With a new, tough head coach, Dwayne Haskins with a season under his belt, the Trent Williams situation resolved, a star rookie edge rusher in the fold, and one of the easiest schedules in the league? It is absolutely possible.
Miami Dolphins
Cam Newton at quarterback or not, it’s undeniable that this is the most vulnerable the Patriots have been going into a season in 20 years. The greatest quarterback of all time just moved to Florida for the final years of his career, and a Pats offense that struggled last year is inspiring zero confidence heading into 2020. Newton should win the starting job (though we never really know what Belichick is thinking), but it’s likely we never see anything close to how he played during his 2015 MVP season after a string of bad injuries. The clear favorite to finally unseat the team who has dominated the division for two decades is the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are coming off a 10-6 season and a near playoff victory and seem poised to pick up right where they left off. But maybe we should pump the brakes on Bills Mafia. If we look at historical trends for Buffalo, 2020 doesn’t sound as promising. The Bills haven’t had back to back winning seasons since the 90’s. As much as there’s room for optimism for the squad, history tells us there’s a definite chance for regression, as well. But Buffalo isn’t the only team in the AFC East capable of beating out New England. Enter the Miami Dolphins. Just a year ago today, the Dolphins were regarded as by far the worst team in football and were expected to just “Tank For Tua.” After an awful start to the season, the Dolphins ended up grinding out a rare impressive 5 win season…and they still were able to get the star Alabama QB. It’s pretty clear that Coach Brian Flores is a rising star in the league with what he was able to get out of a team with such little talent. After a solid draft and some key free agent signings that will help both sides of the ball, Miami is quietly gearing up to compete this season even while technically still “rebuilding.” It’s likely that Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to start the year under center, and as we’ve seen in the past, the multigame runs he can go on are nothing but “Fitzmagical.” If Flores gets this team ready to overachieve beyond their talent again in 2020, the Dolphins are capable of doing more than just stealing their one yearly game from the Patriots: they might just take the division, too.
Arizona Cardinals
The Super Bowl hangover on the NFC side is very real. Since 2012, only two NFC Super Bowl representatives have won their division the season following their appearance in the big game. Both were the Seattle Seahawks, in 2014 and 2015. As dominant as the 49ers were last year, nothing is guaranteed. Just ask the Rams. On top of the mental weight of a heartbreaking Super Bowl loss, San Francisco lost Emmanuel Sanders in free agency, DeForest Buckner via trade, and Deebo Samuel may be out for a while with a broken foot. We could definitely be seeing some regression up in the Bay in 2020. The natural team to pick to win the West, then, would be the Seattle Seahawks, led by superstar Russell Wilson and who almost took the division over San Fran just last year. But how long can that one-man show be sustained? I’m here to tell you, the NFC West is by far the best division in football, but the door is cracked open just slightly at the top of it. And the Arizona Cardinals are coming. Kyler Murray is fresh off a Rookie of the Year campaign and now has a top 3 wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins to go along with Kenyan Drake and the invincible Larry Fitzgerald. They also added Josh Jones to the offensive line and the supremely athletic Isaiah Simmons to the defense through the draft. At the very least, this team is going to be extremely fun to watch. But they are not to be ignored on a competitive level. They have the best chance of any team in football to go from worst to first despite having the toughest group of opponents to overcome to do it. Do not sleep on Arizona.
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