Piece by: Joshua Julian
No, I’m not here to say that Trae Young is some kind of alien or something other than a living, breathing human being. My question comes more from the basketball side, as most of the questions I end up pondering over do.
Trae Young, the 5th overall pick in the 2018 NBA Draft, is quite possibly the most polarizing superstar in the NBA right now. He constantly gets flak for his foul baiting, has become a fixture of Instagram highlights, and went from being elected an All-Star starter to being left off the team entirely despite his numbers remaining roughly the same. Regardless of what you think of him, the fact of the matter is he’s one of the most well-known basketball players in the world, and his team, the Atlanta Hawks, are lucky to finally have a box office draw.
But while Trae brings in the casual eyeballs and has name appeal, how much does he contribute to the Hawks actually winning basketball games? Can he be the central figure of a playoff team, let alone a Finals team? While it is still very early in his career, as he’s only 22, the early success of some rookies nowadays, as well as the newly popularized superstar team-ups, questions like this inevitably get asked before a rookie gets his extension. So, based on the information currently available, let’s examine if Trae Young, based on his past 2 ½ seasons, has given any indication he could help bring the Hawks some playoff success.
First, the elephant in the room: Trae Young will, most likely, never be a plus defensive presence. Heck, he probably won’t ever be even an average defender. Currently, he sits at 478th out of 479 qualified NBA players on the Defensive Real Plus/Minus leaderboard at -3.44, a stat that measures the difference per 100 possessions in points allowed with a player on the court versus off the court. So, basically, when Trae Young plays, the Hawks will, per 100 defensive possessions, give up 3.44 more points than if he weren’t to play.
He’s almost averaging a steal a game, and while his on-ball defense has looked marginally better this year, meaning he at least shows a little fight when screened, he still stands around way too much and is prone to losing his man off the ball. Now, the Hawks defense as a whole has been up and down this year, currently sitting at 23rd in defensive rating in the league after starting the season in the top 10. Clint Capela has locked down the paint quite well, but the absence of DeAndre Hunter and Cam Reddish’s on-again, off-again availability has hurt the team in this stat. So it’s not like Trae is playing poorly on a good defense. There’s a chance he could become an opportunistic defender on a solid defense, where he’s able to gamble and capitalize on Hunter and Reddish causing havoc on the perimeter. But those days are far along the line and not imminent by any stretch of the imagination.
On offense, Trae is the exact opposite of his scouting report on defense. While he does too little on defense to help his team, he almost does too much to help his team on offense. He is the sole ball handler on the Hawks roster. This is partially due to Hunter’s aforementioned injury, as well as Bogdan Bogdanovic only playing 9 games, and Danilo Gallinari and Rajon Rondo coming back from injury to look like a shell of the players they were last year. These injuries, coupled with John Collins being mostly and Clint Capela being wholly dependent on someone else to set them up for buckets, has forced Trae to continue to shoulder his heavy load from last year.
His usage percentage of 32.7 this season is slightly down from last year’s 34.9, but still checks in at 8th in the NBA. Young’s assist percentage, a measure of how many of a player’s teammates’ field goals were assisted by the player, has been in the 40s his entire career, and has sat at 45 the last two seasons, which, this season, ranks 4th, behind Russell Westbrook, Luka Doncic, and James Harden. These stats, coupled with his averages of 26.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 9.4 assists per game on .430/.378/.878 shooting, show just how big of a burden Young has carried on his slight shoulders.
When Trae is on the court, the Hawks might give up 3.5 extra points per 100 possessions, but they also score 11.5 more points than when Trae is off the court. In total, Trae causes a 3.2 net rating increase when he is on the court, which trails only DeAndre Hunter and Clint Capela on the team. Simply put, the Hawks have an offensive rating of 112.7, 11th in the league. When Trae’s on the court, that number jumps to 117.8, which would be good for 2nd in the league. When he’s off? That number slips to 106.3, or 26th.
So, clearly, Trae is integral to the Hawks on the offensive end. But will he be able to bring playoff success to the team? The simple is yes, but not by himself. No superstar, in the history of the league, has ever won anything “by themselves”. Every star that we idolize and deify had a star sidekick or at least a whole squad of elite role players that took certain burdens off the superstar. Mike had Scottie and a tough power forward. LeBron had DWade or Kyrie. Shaq had Kobe and DWade, and Kobe had Shaq and Pau.
Basketball is a team game, and up until this season, the Hawks roster lacked talent outside of the top three or four players. This season, the Hawks are absurdly deep, which is why they sit at 15-20 despite the numerous injuries. Once Bogdan and Hunter get back into the lineup and we see the original starting lineup of Young, Bogi, Hunter, Collins, and Capela get some extended time together, then we will be able to test the desirability of Trae Young as the center of a team. But based off the current numbers available, it sure seems like he’s capable of it. Moving him off the ball a little more and allowing everyone else to get a few touches would be beneficial for everyone, yes. But the personnel that has been available to the Hawks this season has decreed that Trae taking total control was necessary to the team’s success.
Give him another shot creator and some strong defenders around him, and there’s no limit on what Trae Young and these Atlanta Hawks can accomplish.
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