Piece by: Joshua Julian
At least it was a different approach. Notorious for sitting out free agency except to add a few veterans here and there on cheap deals in order to plug some holes, the Patriots have instead adopted a whole new playbook for the 2021 offseason.
Because of their $57 million in cap space, they were one of the few teams in the league who actually had meaningful space, as most teams had to put up with a lowered cap amid the pandemic.
But while the other teams with significant cash to spend, the Jets, Jaguars, and Chargers, have been frugal and taken their time with who they want to bring in, the Patriots have thrown caution to the wind and gone full bore, 100 miles per hour with the windows down, blasting 21 Savage and Lil Baby while they speed down the interstate.
Don’t get me wrong, the talent infusion will make this team better. Both Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry will undoubtedly make a tight end room that featured Ryan Izzo, he of the career 19 catches for 313 yards, and Devin Asiasi, a rookie who produced two catches.
A pass rush that struggled, with 24 sacks, will be bolstered by Matthew Judon, a proven pressure artist, and the return of Deatrich Wise Jr., who has been a consistent rotational edge defender for the past four years in New England. Coupled with Henry Anderson, a versatile piece along the line who can line up in a few different spots, the Patriots should generate more pressure. As for the run defense, Davon Godchaux is a proven space eater, as his 6’3”, 311-pound frame regularly begs for double teams. He only has three career sacks, but that’s not his role. In a secondary that was towards the top of the league in passing yards allowed, the signing of Jalen Mills will give noted defensive wizard Bill Belichek a chess piece back there, as Mills can play deep safety, box safety, and both inside and outside corner.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Pats added two receivers to last year’s incredibly weak wide receiver room. Nelson Agholor had his best season of his career, going for 896 yards in Las Vegas. Kendrick Bourne has spent most of his career buried on San Francisco’s depth chart. But he set a career high in receptions last season with 49, and he could see even more growth with more targets. The Pats also signed Ted Karras, a solid center and a possible replacement for David Andrews, currently a free agent. So clearly, at least on paper, the Patriots got much better.
But here’s the problem. The money they threw at these guys could end up being overpays, which would be crippling to a team attempting to get back into contention. Sure, Matthew Judon is a solid edge rusher. But he’s never recorded more than 9.5 sacks, and he’s tended to hover around six in his other four seasons. And yet the Pats threw four years and $56 million at him, with $32 million of it guaranteed.
What happens if Judon struggles without another solid edge rusher to bookend him? In Baltimore he had at least one of Tyus Bowser, Yannick Ngakoue, and Calais Campbell on the other end. Sure, Jalen Mills is as versatile as they come, but just because he can line up at cornerback doesn’t mean he can play it at a high level. In his first two seasons in the league, he was mainly a corner, and when targeted, he allowed passer ratings of 109.7 and 107.8. Those numbers get you four years and $24 million? Nelson Agholor had a good season last year, but in his previous five years he never broke 800 yards receiving and struggled with drops. And yet the Pats felt comfortable giving him two years and $22 million, while also making him twice as expensive in the second season (cap hit of $15 million). And Deatrich Wise, who’s career high in sacks came in his rookie year, where he posted five, got $22 million as well over four years, with cap hits of $6.25 million in each of his final three years.
So what’s so bad about this spending? Sure, they’re spending a bit, but they’re adding talent, so it’s worth it right? Not necessarily. One, they’ve thrown a good chunk of change at guys who haven’t exactly played to a star level. Matt Judon is not bad, and he’s a two-time Pro Bowler, but he’s never played like a true #1 edge rusher. And yet the Pats gave him about as much in 2022 (in 2021 Judon’s total cap hit is about $6 million, 2022 is $16 million) as Lavonte David and Jamie Collins, two outside linebackers who are a lot more versatile than Judon. In 2022, Agholor will have the same cap hit as Odell Beckham Jr., who is simply on a different plane of existence as Agholor. Agholor will also make more than Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, and DeVante Parker. The Pats are betting on upside and players growing in larger roles, but that’s a risky proposition in free agency. For every real breakout, like Shaquil Barrett, there’s a contract year breakout that becomes an outlier, like Dante Fowler.
On top of that, it’s an indictment of the Pats recent draft history. See, they wouldn’t have to spend all this money to plug all these holes if they had done what they aimed to do: plug holes in the draft with young, cheap rookies. Just take a look at their Round 1-2 picks dating back to 2015: Malcom Brown (DT), Jordan Richards (S), Cyrus Jones (CB), Isaiah Wynn (OT), Sony Michel (RB), Duke Dawson (CB), N’Keal Harry (WR), Joejuan Williams (CB), Kyle Dugger (S), Josh Uche (DE). Some of those guys have become mediocre starters (Wynn, Michel, Dugger), while others have been unbridled busts (Dawson, Harry, Richards). Because of this, coupled with the general volatility of draft picks in the later rounds, the Patriots have been left to throw money at their lack of depth, because they failed to build that depth through the draft, as they have done for the last 15ish years.