The Patriots Are Back

Piece by: Lou Pastor

Offensive Line

The Patriots shuffled some pieces around on the offensive line this off-season, but they ultimately maintained their elite run-blocking unit. New England started by bringing back OT Trent Brown from the Raiders in exchange for a swapping of a 5th and 7th round pick with Las Vegas in 2022. Brown was an elite run-blocker for New England in 2018 and Las Vegas foolishly overpaid Brown as a free agent after the 2018 season. The Patriots now have Trent Brown back on a cheap, restructured deal.

New England successfully shipped out OT Marcus Cannon to Houston in exchange for three late-round pick swaps in the 2021 NFL Draft. The Cannon trade works in conjunction with the Trent Brown acquisition.

The Patriots also brought back center David Andrews on a 4 year, $19 M contract; a bargain for one of the league’s best centers.

Overall, like last season, the Patriots have one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the NFL. A starting five of Isaiah Wynn, Michael Onwenu, David Andrews, Shaq Mason, and Trent Brown plus a few solid backups is a band of bullies that poses a threat to most defensive lines. New England has catered their offense towards playing to the strengths of quarterback Cam Newton.

Pass Catchers

The Patriots’ biggest splashes came with the signings of tight ends Jonnu Smith (4 years, $50 M) and Hunter Henry (3 years, $37.5 M). The two tight ends will combine for over $56 M guaranteed. I’ve heard a fair amount of criticism over the Patriots’ spending on Smith and Henry, but I don’t fully understand it. Bill Belichick has always acutely identified tight end as a relatively valuable and singular position. Tight ends are like knights on a chessboard, in that part of their value is derived from their irregularity as a component of the game as a whole. Jonnu Smith is a uniquely speedy and athletic player who will be too fast for opposing safeties and linebackers. Henry is more of a dependable receiver with crisp route-running. Having two good tight ends makes the opposing defensive coordinator’s job much more difficult. Bill Belichick has had success throughout his career with developing tight ends. Most notably, the Patriots’ offense was lethal with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Lastly, good on the Patriots for treating 2020 rookies Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene as sunk costs instead of compounding the mistakes.

New England signed WR Kendrick Bourne to a 3 year, $15 M contract, and WR Nelson Agholor was signed to a 2 year, $22 M contract. Honestly, I’ve never been overly impressed with either Bourne or Agholor, but the contracts they were signed to aren’t egregious. Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne will join Jakobi Meyers and possibly a rookie from the 2021 class as the wide receivers for New England in 2021. The Patriots recognize that they’re a Baltimore Ravens-like offense, in that the ground game is the identity. New England has bland but capable receivers to attract opposing corners so that their quick tight ends can exploit easier matchups against weaker coverage players. The Patriots’ offensive strategy will be to dominate the time of possession, which will limit opposing teams’ opportunities. Bill Belichick has constructed an offense to suffocate teams like Kansas City and Buffalo by not allowing them to possess the ball.

Finally, the Patriots will likely not re-sign long-time club members James White and Rex Burkhead. Both White and Burkhead were reliable underneath receivers who served as great Patriots. New England is probably allowing them to walk because Cam Newton struggles with shorter passes and performs better when throwing the ball further downfield or running with the ball himself.

Coverage Players

The Patriots have maintained their excellent trio of corners in Stephone Gilmore, JC Jackson, and Jonathan Jones. New England did make some adjustments at the safety position, though. With Patrick Chung retiring, Bill Belichick went out and signed Jalen Mills to a 4 year, $24 M contract. The Patriots now have Devin McCourty and Adrian Phillips as the two starting safeties, with Jalen Mills and Kyle Dugger as versatile chess pieces. I believe that Belichick has Dugger and Mills as tight end-coverers. New England’s defense is perfectly suited to match up with the Kansas City Chiefs: JC Jackson plus safety help on Tyreek Hill, Stephone Gilmore on a separate outside receiver, and multiple agile slot/safety players to guard Travis Kelce.

Front Seven

The biggest signing New England made to their linebacking corps was giving OLB Matt Judon a 4 year, $54.5 M contract. While it may seem rich, Judon is making a relatively fair amount of money when compared to other hybrid edge rushers like him around the league. The Patriots also signed defensive ends Deatrich Wise and Henry Anderson and defensive tackle Davon Godchaux. Lastly, New England brought back OLB Kyle Van Noy on a cheap contract. The Patriots’ front seven lacks star power, but a significant chunk of their cap space was spent on depth, which is smart because defense is largely a weak-link system.

Quarterback

The Patriots were able to sign Cam Newton for a dirt-cheap 1 year, $5.1 M contract for the 2021 season. The only other QBs on New England’s roster are Jarrett Stidham and Jake Dolegala. Much has been made about the Patriots making a big splash to upgrade their quarterback, but that’s never been Bill Belichick’s style; Belichick never spends 1st round picks on a quarterback and rarely picks in the 1st round at all. Most of the time, New England hangs back and picks up late-round QBs: Tom Brady was a 6th round pick, Matt Cassel was a 7th round pick, Ryan Mallett was a 3rd round pick, Jacoby Brissett was a 3rd round pick, and Jarrett Stidham was a 4th round pick. The highest draft capital Bill Belichick has ever spent on a QB was a 2nd round pick on Jimmy Garoppolo in 2014. I’ve seen plenty of mock drafts with the Patriots selecting a QB in round 1, but I’d be surprised if that happened; New England will likely trade down and accumulate picks like they always do and select a player to help them soon like OLB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah or CB Asante Samuel Jr.

Based on everything I’ve picked up on from the organization, it seems like the Patriots’ players and coaching staff really enjoy working and playing with Cam Newton. Newton has his flaws, but it wouldn’t shock me if New England won multiple playoff games next year with him as their starting quarterback. After all, Cam Newton’s skillset works perfectly with the way this entire Patriots’ team has been built. There’s a fair chance that New England drafts a developmental backup QB this year, and a slim chance that the Patriots bring back Jimmy Garoppolo, but, ultimately, I’d be surprised if Cam Newton wasn’t the Patriots’ starting quarterback in week 1, 2021.

Conclusion

I’ve read and listened to a lot of criticism over the Patriots’ off-season moves, but most of the reasoning is nonsensical. Despite having a terrible offense, COVID issues, almost no cap space, and a brutal schedule, among other obstacles, in 2020, the Patriots went 7-9. People seem to misremember the Patriots’ 2020 season as 3-13, but they went 7-9. Having the best head coach in the history of football makes any football team with an above average roster a Super Bowl contender.

Keep in mind that many of the contracts have future void years and expiring guaranteed money, so New England didn’t mortgage their future the way many people in the media have asserted.

The Patriots didn’t go out and sign the flashiest piece for an ultra-expensive contract the way that the Jets have historically, which may be why the public lacks understanding for New England’s strategy. When building a football team, depth and versatility outweigh singular pieces unless it’s the absolute 99th percentile of importance like a Patrick Mahomes or Russell Wilson. The Patriots have constructed a good football team, they have a full slate of draft picks coming, and New England should be taken seriously as a playoff team for 2021.

Citations

NFL transactions. (2021, March 23). Retrieved March 24, 2021, from https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/transactions/new-england-patriots/