Piece by Lou Pastor
The Super Bowl Betting Manifesto (Different from an ordinary NFL game)
*Follow the markets in general, but especially for obscure wagers
*Shop for value on lines across different sports-books
*Unders tend to be sharp in public games like the Super Bowl (it’s easier for people to say that an event will happen rather than not happen)
*Spread wagers out thinly to bet on more things
*Keep in mind that we’re dealing with a one-game sample size
*Consider who the NFL would rather have as the winning team
*Don’t throw your money away on parlays unless it is a highly correlated situation between multiple events (also true of any sports-wager)
*Have fun with the event
Game Wagers
Kansas City -3 (-120) — If I were going into this game as a neutral bettor without any futures bets to hedge for, Kansas City would have to be the side. If not for the public having power over the line more so than in any other singular football game, I would have expected this game’s line to be KC -4.5. The Chiefs’ offense is a very difficult matchup for Tampa Bay.
Under 56.5 Total Points (-120) — The first meeting between KC and TB landed on 51 points in Week 12, and there are projected thunderstorms scattered for Super Bowl Sunday. Also, on a betting site I checked, the four individual quarter over/under point totals added up to 52.
Total Points Scored: 50–56 (+425)
TB Under 27.5 Points (-140)
Kansas City -2.5 First-Half Moneyline (-105) — I would rather fade the narrative that Kansas City constantly falls behind early in games, especially when in the Week 12 matchup, the Chiefs went up 17–0 in a blink courtesy of a few monster plays by Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill.
1st Quarter Total Spread Over 10 points (-120) — On specific betting sites, the four individual quarter over/under point totals add up to a few points under 56.5, meaning betting overs on such sites’ quarters is likely positive expected value.
First Team to record a 1st Down: Tampa Bay (-125) & First Team to record a punt:
Tampa Bay (-150) — Based on the market, it appears that Kansas City is almost a lock to defer if they win the coin toss, but Tampa Bay is only moderately favored (~-200) to defer if they win the coin toss. There is a decent chance that the Buccaneers have the ball first, giving them an enormous edge to record either a punt or first down before KC.
The first Turnover of the game is a fumble (+160) — I like plus-money for a fumble during a game with a thunderstorm.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 2.5 Total Touchdowns (-175)
Score in the last 3:30 of the 4th Quarter? Yes (-175)
Total Penalties Under 10 (-130) — Both teams’ penalty props are leaning heavily under 5.5 penalties per team, so I like getting the round number of 10.
KC Player Props
Patrick Mahomes Under 331.5 Passing Yards (-115) — Patrick Mahomes has only thrown for 300+ yards twice in seven career playoff games, and he’s never eclipsed 325 passing yards in a playoff game. I love Mahomes, but this is the highest passing yardage prop in Super Bowl history by a lot. Super Bowls tend to be played a bit more tight to the vest for at least a quarter.
Patrick Mahomes Under 21.5 Rushing Yards (-120) — I’m assuming that Patrick Mahomes’ turf toe is still enough of an issue to deter him from running too much, but it’s difficult to doubt the power of pain-killing drugs.
Darrel Williams Under 42.5 Total Rushing + Receiving Yards (-120) — I’m heavily fading Darrel Williams for this game because Tampa Bay has the league’s best run-defense, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is probably healthier than he’s been in a while, and maybe Le’Veon Bell gets a touch or two.
Darrel Williams Under 30.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Darrel Williams Under 2.5 Receptions (-165)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Under 49.5 Total Rushing + Receiving Yards (-120) — I’m less confident about fading CEH than I am Darrel Williams, but all of Edwards-Helaire’s props are heavily favored to go under and the Bucs’ defense is stout up front.
Mecole Hardman Under 2.5 Receptions (-140)
Tyreek Hill Over 6.5 Receptions (-175) — Tyreek Hill humiliated Carlton Davis for 13 receptions, 269 yards, and 3 touchdowns in Week 12 of this year and I appreciate Tyreek being one of the biggest reasons why my Chiefs’ winning the AFC futures bet hit, so I won’t fade The Cheetah.
Tyreek Hill Over 91.5 Receiving Yards (-135) — In the Chiefs’ two playoff games this season and Super Bowl last year, Tyreek Hill was targeted 37 times and never failed to record at least 105 receiving yards in any of those three games.
Sammy Watkins Under 3.5 Receptions (-140)
Travis Kelce Over 7.5 Receptions (-140) — Tampa Bay’s weakness is their linebackers’ coverage, implying that Kelce could have his way over the middle of the field.
Travis Kelce Over 94.5 Receiving Yards (-140) — Travis Kelce has gone over 100 receiving yards in four of the seven postseason games since Patrick Mahomes became the Chiefs’ starting quarterback, including both playoff games this season.
TB Player Props
Tom Brady Under 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-160)
Tom Brady Under 306.5 Passing Yards (-115) — Brady’s passing yardage prop is enormous, relatively speaking. Two public teams with high-octane offenses are clashing, which means yardage props are going to be inflated a bit.
Tom Brady Under 0.5 Rushing Yards (-175) — While it’s so easy to ask for one QB sneak while watching the game from your couch, this number feels like a trap. Common bettors aren’t going to factor in potential QB kneel-downs, a negative rush, or no rushing attempts. Brady has finished with a negative amount of rushing yards in two of the three playoff games this season.
Leonard Fournette Over 3.5 Receptions (-130) — Fournette has accumulated 14 receptions on 17 targets during the Buccaneers’ three-game playoff run. Tom Brady may be more likely to check the ball down due to Kansas City’s defense selling out to prevent large passing plays.
Leonard Fournette Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-125) — Leonard Fournette has outperformed Ronald Jones this postseason, Fournette has eclipsed 48.5 rushing yards in all three playoff games, and the Chiefs’ defense is comfortable giving yardage to running backs to limit disastrous downfield passes.
Ronald Jones Over 34.5 Rushing Yards (-120) — If Jones gets his projected 10 to 12 carries, he will likely go over 34.5 rushing yards by averages.
Antonio Brown Over 3.5 Receptions (-130) — I like the idea of AB getting more involved in the Super Bowl than he has in most games for Tampa Bay this season.
Antonio Brown Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Chris Godwin Under 5.5 Receptions (-110) — There are some noisy results with dropped passes, but Chris Godwin has gone under 5.5 receptions in all three of the Buccaneers’ postseason games thus far. I’m expecting a few of Godwin’s targets to shift over to Antonio Brown and Scotty Miller this week.
Chris Godwin Under 77.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Mike Evans Under 4.5 Receptions (-120) — As many fantasy football owners know, Mike Evans is very hit or miss. I’m betting on Evans having a quiet Super Bowl, as he’ll likely be matched up with decent Chiefs’ corner Charvarius Ward plus Tyrann Mathieu patrolling downfield.
Mike Evans Under 62.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Cameron Brate Over 2.5 Receptions (-160) — Cameron Brate has quietly been a solid tight end for the Buccaneers down the stretch this season. In Tampa Bay’s three playoff games, Brate has caught 11 passes on 16 targets, going over 2.5 receptions in each game. The Chiefs’ weakness being linebacker makes me like Brate going over 2.5 receptions even more.
Scotty Miller Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (+130) — A rare occurrence where I’m contradicting the market. I think that Tom Brady will get his guy Scotty Miller involved similarly to Danny Amendola in New England’s many Super Bowls.
Wacky Wagers
Total Goals Liverpool vs. Manchester City (EPL, 2/7/2021) higher than Tom Brady Rushing yards (-250)
Carolina Hurricanes’ Total shots on goal (NHL, 2/7/2021 @ CBJ) higher than Mecole Hardman’s Receiving + Rushing yards (+110)
Tampa Bay Lightning’s Total shots on goal (NHL, 2/8/2021 @ NSH) higher than Rob Gronkowski’s Receiving yards (-120)
Non-Football Wagers
National Anthem Under 2 minutes 0 seconds (-150)
Over 8 Songs Played During Halftime Show (-200) — Follow the markets.
Over 0.5 Wardrobe Changes During Halftime Show (-380) — Follow the markets.
First song played during halftime show: Can’t Feel My Face (+425) — The Weeknd’s
first song will likely be high energy, a song that doesn’t require a surprise guest singer, and one of the songs favored to be played first. The markets know more than you do, so distribute bets on a few of the favorites at plus-money, with tiny sprinkles on a dark horse or two. Also, I Can’t Feel My Face would be an ironic introduction after The Weeknd’s (totally real) Handsome-Squidward-Face images that have been floating around.
First song played during halftime show: Starboy (+350)
First song played during halftime show: Blinding Lights (+400)
First song played during halftime show: Heartless (+1000)
Will Ariana Grande appear on stage during the halftime show? Yes (+315) —
Rumors are that Love Me Harder will be performed, which is a duet between The Weeknd and Ariana Grande.
Will Doja Cat appear on stage during the halftime show? Yes (+375) — There’s a funky remix of In Your Eyes that features Doja Cat, plus a halftime show with no surprise guest seems too boring for The Weeknd on this big of a stage.
Will The Weeknd be wearing sunglasses when the halftime show begins? Yes (-200)
Citations
2020 Kansas City Chiefs schedule. (n.d.). Retrieved February 04, 2021, from https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/schedule/_/name/kc
2020 Tampa Bay buccaneers Schedule. (n.d.). Retrieved February 04, 2021, from https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/schedule/_/name/tb
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