Piece by: Nicholas Cosmai
What if I told you the biggest story coming out of the draft weekend was not actually about the draft at all? The build up and anticipation of the first day of the draft and the inevitable first pick in Trevor Lawrence was put aside in the morning with huge news. Aaron Rodgers has told people in the Green Bay organisation that he does not want to return to the Packers next season. Whilst everyone did expect Rodgers and Green Bay to go their separate ways, this was thought to happen a couple years down the track and certainly not Rodgers forcing the move. So why has the reigning league MVP wanted a move now out of Green Bay?
Lets start in the 2019 season, 2nd seed in the NFC, 13-3 in Matt LaFleur’s first season as head coach. Widely considered a great improvement from their previous season record of 6-9-1. They had an NFC championship appearance against the one team they could not match up well against, San Francisco. Beaten heavily midway through the season was replicated in the championship game, both games were really over at half time. What followed that season was the start of Aaron’s wanted departure, the 2020 NFL Draft.
That draft the Packers drafted no skill position players (receivers, tight ends and running backs) to try and assist Aaron, which was needed. That was not even the worst part. The Packers also traded up into the first round to take Jordan Love. This pick is seen by most as the replica to Aaron being picked in the first round in 2005, when Green Bay still had Brett Favre. This would lead to the frustrations from Aaron to just grow stronger.
How did Aaron respond to this? He went out and won the MVP last season, leading the Packers to a consecutive 13-3 record, this time clinching the 1st seed in the NFC. Green Bay’s season had ended at the same stopping point but different circumstances. At home against the eventual champion Tampa Bay Bucs in the NFC championship game, they were down 23-31. It’s 4th and goal on the 8, just before the 2-minute warning in the last quarter. Instead of going for it, they elect to kick the field goal which made it 26-31 which ended up being the final score. After the previous year of being so far off, this time around the Packers had a better chance of playing in the super bowl. This is probably where Aaron made his decision to want to leave. But who can blame him? I would put the ball in his hands too to try and tie the game up.
This off season, it is believed that the Packers wanted to restructure Aaron’s contract which can happen without player permission. This did not sit well in the Rodgers camp and this all led to the morning of the draft where he expressed his discontent. Now from the Green Bay standpoint they want to try and hold onto him for as long as possible until Jordan Love is ready to take over. Unfortunately, when a player of Rodgers’ calibre forces an organisations hand like this, they will ultimately have to comply.
No matter what way Green Bay looks at this, it still ends in a lose-lose situation. No matter what happens, Aaron does not want to play in Green Bay and players of his calibre are usually hard to replace. On the one hand, if they decide to be stubborn and keep him, his value only decreases. Now sometimes this can work but if it does not, it goes horrible for the organisation. Look at the situation in Houston with Deshaun Watson. Yes, the circumstances for Watson’s value dropping are different, but had they traded him earlier, they would have had a bidding war and have at least 3 first rounders plus good players. All this for a player that will not return to them anyway, the principal is the same. Rodgers’ value will never be as high as what it is now. The longer he sits, the more questions teams will have if he can replicate what he did last season or anything near that. He will be turning 38 in December, so we do not entirely know how long he has got left at such a high level.
What is the flipside to this? They end up trading him. They will end up getting something that will start will multiple first round picks, maybe second’s too along with players. This will most likely mean that Green Bay will have a brief period of rebuilding until Jordan Love hits stride. You would think that if Green Bay ultimately do not want to deal Rodgers just yet, they do not think Love is quite ready. The financial implications of trading Rodgers are what will handcuff Green Bay the most. If Green Bay deal him before June 1st, they will have $38.35 million count against their cap, after June 1st the figure is $21.15 million. So, if he is dealt, it would be wise if it were obviously after June 1st. Unlike a pre-June 1st trade, the post June first trade would actually save Green Bay cap space, which helps considering they are tight with their cap.
For the Green Bay Packers, it truly is an end of an era. The fans knew that this was coming soon, but I bet they would hate how it has gone down and how they could not get another super bowl before he left. The time is definitely now for them to move Rodgers on. People that do not want to be in the building can be toxic, plus do Green Bay really want to keep him around with a $37 million cap hit when he won’t play? They will get maximum value for him in a trade and then start drafting around Jordan Love. Replacing all-time greats are hard, Green Bay in the past have done it better than most. We are now heading into the Jordan Love era in Green Bay and boy has he got some shoes to fill.