Piece by Ryan Maguire
The NFL Playoffs are here! The field is set and now over the course of the next month we will crown a champion. This weekend is going to be awesome. 10 straight hours of football on both Saturday and Sunday. So many storylines.
Can the Chiefs repeat? Can Rodgers get that much needed second title to cement himself near the top of the all-time greats? Can Drew Brees or Big Ben ride off into the sunset with one more ring? The Browns being back in the playoffs. The Bills being a contender. There is so much to like about these playoffs and outside of the Patriots not being in it, I am so excited for these playoffs. Great matchups.
I finished off the regular season with a mediocre week, going 8-8 on picks (119-112-7) and 2-3 on leans (48-43-1). I am just over 51% which means I am still in the red, but I did hit a few big underdog money lines this year that has me closer to even.
Some updated season stats:
Favorites: 9-6-1 ATS (112-137-7)
Home Teams: 9-6-1 ATS (123-125-7)
Underdogs: 2-14 SU (85-170-1)
Over/Under: 9-6-1 (125-126-5)
As the regular season comes to an end, the favorites finished off a strong in what was the second most profitable season to bet on underdogs since 2003. Home field advantage clearly wasn’t the same with no fans. Favorites won straight up 67% of the time. And after a hot start, the overs struggled in the middle-to-late part of the year. Lets’ dive into Wild Card Weekend.
ODDS via Oddsshark
Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills (-6.5) O/U: 51
We kick off Wild Card Weekend with the Colts traveling to Buffalo to take on the Bills. The NFL screwed this up, since this has the chance to be one of the best games of the weekend and deserved to be a night game. The Bills are the hottest team in the NFL right now and the Colts have the makeup to be one of the tougher non-division winners in these playoffs.
This is a huge test for Josh Allen. HUGE. Everyone is talking about him as the MVP and a top five QB in the NFL. It is going unnoticed though that he played amazing for the first month, struggled for a decent stretch, but then finished the year out strong. The hype in Buffalo is there. Remember, last year he and the Bills blew a 16-point second half lead to a Bill O’Brien Texans team. The postseason is so much different than the regular season. Another QB we have seen play like an MVP in the regular season but struggle in the playoffs is Lamar Jackson, who is 0-2 in the playoffs. But this Bills roster is loaded and as long as Allen doesn’t make the mistakes we have seen him make in the past, they should be ok. They have the #2 ranked scoring offense and have scored 30 or more in six of their past eight games. The Colts defense has been a bit overrated and weren’t as good in the second half of the season. I think the Bills shouldn’t have too many issues trying to score but the Colts defense needs to step up if they have any chance in this game.
For the Colts on offense, they need to establish the run. Their offensive line is the strength of this team and if they want to win they need to control the clock and limit the chances that Buffalo’s offense has. They can’t rely on Rivers to carry them. He played his entire career in San Diego before going to a team that plays in a dome and now he will have to go to Buffalo where the temperatures are expected to be in the 20s. The Bills have been able to get run on so the Colts have to go with that ground and pound formula.
Their offense is good enough that they should be able to put up points as well.
The key to this could very well be which quarterback makes less mistakes. We have yet to see Allen get it done in a playoff game and Rivers’ career could be summed up with one word, letdown. He has gotten so close in so many games and then just one bad interception ends it all. I think the Bills are playing better than anyone right now, but I need to see them do it in the playoffs. So I feel safer taking the over. There are just too many questions about whether or not the Bills are ready.
They look ready. But I need to see it. I think both teams have a quality offense and should be able to put up points. 28-24 does not seem that crazy of a score for these two teams. I will still lean the Bills though, given how well they are playing and I don’t love a dome team in Indy having to travel to Buffalo for a cold weather game where it looks like fans will be allowed.
THE PICK: Over 51 LEANS: Bills -6.5
LA Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-3) O/U: 42
This will be the third time this season that these two teams have met, with them splitting the previous two. This is going to be a tough game to cap with the status of Rams QB Jared Goff up in the air, with the Rams refusing to tip their hand.
This is setting up to be another defensive battle. After having one of the worst pass defenses in the history of the NFL for the first half of the season, the Seahawks have ramped it up over the past month and a half on that side of the ball. Goff didn’t play great in either meeting and if he is able to go, he obviously won’t be anywhere near 100%. We saw backup QB John Wolford do very little against Arizona last week.
So the Rams are going to need to try to run the ball, which will be tough going up against one of the leagues’ best run defenses. I think the Rams are going to struggle to score.
For Seattle, that offensive line has their hands full with Aaron Donald and Co. They struggled on offense in both of the previous meetings, and their offense as a whole was not as good down the stretch as it was in the first half of the season. DK Metcalf has been nowhere to be found in the past month or so, and Jalen Ramsey has locked him down in the first two meetings. The Seattle running game improved over the course of the year but I am skeptical if they can really dominate in that area. The Rams have the most complete defense in the NFL and there is a reason they are number 1 ranked scoring defense.
This number is low, but it is that low for a reason. This is going to be a slugfest and I don’t expect too many points in this one. The Rams are going to struggle even if a banged up Goff is in and the Rams defense knows they have to ball out if they want any chance in this one. I will take the under here.
THE PICK: Under 42
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) @ Washington Football Team O/U: 44.5
Tom Brady and the Bucs will begin their playoff run when they head to Washington to take on the Football Team. For all the playoff games Tom Brady has played in, this will be the first time he has ever played on the road on Wild Card Weekend (hmmmm wonder why). Hopefully Alex Smith is able to go because then this makes them a tough opponent for the Bucs and have the makeup of a typical opponent that can give Tom Brady struggles. If Smith can’t go and Taylor Heinicke gets the start, then they probably have no chance.
Tom Brady has been awesome lately, but we need to pump the breaks a little bit. The teams he played over the past month have been so bad. The Lions were missing half of their coaching staff. In terms of average yards per pass attempt allowed, the Lions rank dead last. The Vikings and Falcons are tied for 27th in that category. The Falcons allowed more pass yards than any other team this year.
The Lions ranked last in pass touchdowns allowed, with the Falcons and Vikings both ranking in the bottom third of the league. Washington is just so much better on defense than those teams. They ranked 2nd in yards allowed per attempt. They ranked 2nd in pass yards allowed. They are tied for second in pass touchdowns allowed.
They also rank 6th in sacks. Brady has been very good at getting the ball out quickly but like he has throughout his career, he has not been great when his offensive line is giving up pressure. I also wonder how they approach neutralizing Chase Young. In New England, they always game planned to take out the homewreckers such as JJ Watt, Dwight Freeney, along with so many others. Will Arians do the same? Or will Arians continue to “just do what we do”, and not adjust. The Bucs offense against this Washington defense is the matchup we all want to see and this is going to be very interesting.
On offense, Washington hasn’t been great, and they better hope Smith can go. The Bucs defense will be without stud LB Devin White which is a huge blow. The Bucs defense has also been overrated so Washington needs to find ways to move the ball and control the clock and limit how many chances Brady gets. Their running game isn’t great, and the Bucs have the best run defense in the league. They don’t need Smith to be an MVP but if he can be a bit more than a game manager they have a real shot in this game.
I hate betting against Brady, but I hate his team. I hate his coach. And this is honestly a bit of a disrespectful line for a home playoff team. Washington gets dragged because they are a 7-9 team but they are much better than their record shows. They were a completely different team once Smith took over and they finally had a competent QB. The Bucs are also frauds. They beat one team over .500. Brady is also 0-7 ATS in his last 7 primetime games, with the spread missing by an average of 14 points per game. I don’t think Washington wins this outright, but they are going to give the Bucs a run for their money. They will try to muddy this game up and I think this will be an ugly one with Washington covering and I will lean the under.
THE PICK: Washington +8 LEANS: Under 44.5
Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ Tennessee Titans O/U: 54.5
This could be the best game of the weekend. So much recent history between the two teams. Two really good offenses. The Ravens were the number 1 seed last year and were punched in the mouth early by the Titans, who never looked back on their way to the AFC Championship. Then in the rematch earlier this year, the Ravens blew a late lead and ended up losing in overtime. Round three is going to be awesome.
This is the biggest game of Lamar Jackson’s career. The narrative around him has been he is an MVP in the regular season who then folds in the playoffs. That has been true so far but with such a small playoff sample size, is it just a fluke or is it the trend? He has come along so much since that first playoff loss, so with only one other playoff loss, is this really something to think about. I know they are a wild card team on the road, but they are the favorites. If he loses this game and doesn’t play well then that narrative is going to be very, very real. The Titans defense hasn’t been great all year but they do seem to have the blueprint of how to play Lamar.
They don’t rush the passer well anyways so I think they are going to play to their strength, and just sit back, contain him, and make him beat them from the pocket. It is no secret that the Ravens are going to try and run the ball, so they should try to commit to stopping in and make Jackson win with his arm. The Ravens weapons aren’t great so the Titans should feel okay taking their chances in one on one matchups even with how bad their defense has been.
We know what the Titans are going to do on offense. Give it to the big man. Derrick Henry has been a monster this year again and the Titans will go as far as he takes them. The Ravens held him in check for a good amount of that game, but they couldn’t do it for all sixty minutes and overtime. The Ravens run defense has been terrible all year. So they will have their hands full and the Titans are going to do what they do.
I am scared of how high this number is for a playoff game, but I have to take the over. The Titans defense has been terrible so the Ravens should get theirs. The Titans will be able to run on Baltimore. Tennessee ranks 4th in scoring and Baltimore is 7th. I think this is going to be a back and forth game that may come down to who gets the ball last.
THE PICK: Over 54.5 LEANS: Tennessee +3
Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints (-10) O/U: 47
The Bears will look to pull off the biggest upset of the weekend, when they head to the dome as double digit underdogs to take on Drew Brees and the Saints. This might be the game I am struggling the most to get a read on. Are the Bears setting themselves up again to get smoked by Aaron Rodgers? Is this the beginning of the end for Drew Brees? Can Brees pull a Peyton Manning and make one final run and ride off into the sunset?
The Bears started to play well down the stretch, but look at who they played. They beat Houston, Minnesota, and Jacksonville. Yea the Saints haven’t beat anyone that good in a while either, but they have dominated some of the top competition throughout the league, something the Bears have not done.
The Saints still have one of the best quarterbacks in Brees. They have all those weapons. A great offensive line. One of the league’s best defenses. They are just so complete. Up until recently I had them as the favorite to come out of the NFC, but Rodgers is on such a mission and his team is playing more complementary football they I give them the edge right now.
I don’t believe in Mitch Trubisky to be able to overcome all of this. I think there is something to it that the Bears have been winning with him, but he just isn’t good enough. We saw how they were completely outmatched by the Packers last weekend in a home game that at the time, they HAD to win. I don’t see how they have enough to hang in this one and I think the Saints take care of business in this one.
THE PICK: Saints -10
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) O/U: 47
The Browns are back in the playoffs for the first time in 18 years, and they couldn’t be more Browns doing it. They have a bunch of covid positive tests and will be without their Head Coach, who just so happens to be the offensive play caller and Baker Mayfield’s safety net. They aren’t holding their first practice until Friday afternoon. I think this is just too much for them to overcome.
A young quarterback who is more of a complementary piece than someone who can carry the team, on the road in his first playoff game, without his coach? I just don’t see it. The Browns almost blew it against the Steelers backups and when they played earlier this year, the Steelers wiped the floor with them. This could also be one of Big Ben’s last cracks at it, so the Steelers will be ready. There is just too much value in this line. The line was 4.5 before the Head Coach/play caller was ruled out, and now it only moved 1.5 points.
I know he is a new coach but coaches usually fall somewhere in the 3-4-point range of how it affects the spread. The Browns just won’t be ready for this one. They have also lost 17 games in a row at Pittsburgh which is absolutely insane regardless of how bad they have been in the past. The Steelers defense will show up big in this one and really cause problems for Mayfield, and Big Ben has the experience and knows what it takes to get it done.
THE PICK: Steelers -6
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