Piece by Ryan Maguire
Welcome back! We are finally here. The final NFL game of the 2020-2021 NFL season. It was a weird year. No fans. Tom Brady not on the Patriots. The Patriots not in the playoffs. A new playoff format (which was awesome).
There were so many great moments and now we are down to two teams. The Bucs, led by the greatest to ever do it in Brady, will be the first team to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium. They will host the Chiefs, led by Mahomes who is about to be the face of the league for the next decade. Is this the game where we see the true changing of the guard from Brady to Mahomes? We shall see. I went 1-1 on picks (124-117-9) and 1-0 on leans (50-46-1) during Conference Championship Weekend. I will dive into the game first and then get into some of the props that I like.
Some updated stats:
Favorites: 1-1 ATS (117-143-8)
Home Teams: 1-1 ATS (127-132-8)
Underdogs: 1-1 SU (89-176-1)
Over/Under: 1-1 (130-132-6)
Splits across the board. In the end, the profitable play of the NFL season was to bet underdogs with the spread. That is not too surprising since that more than likely goes against the average public bet. I wonder if that trend will come into play this Sunday. Lets’ dive into the big game.
ODDS via Oddsshark
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers O/U: 56
When these two teams met earlier this year, the game really wasn’t as close as the score would indicate. The Chiefs blew it open early, taking a 17-0 lead in the first quarter, as well has having a 17-point lead entering the 4th quarter. They took their foot off the gas a little bit and allowed the Bucs to hang around and a garbage time score made it close. The Bucs had no plan on defense. They allowed Tyreek Hill to have over 200 yards in the first quarter alone, and finishing with 13 catches for 269 yards and 3 touchdowns. Travis Kelce had 8 catches for 82 yards. The only two guys that you really need to worry about covering, the Bucs just refused to do so.
They also blitzed a lot, which aggressive defensive coordinator Todd Bowles loves to do, which caused serious problems for them. When you blitz Mahomes, he is mobile enough to move around and extend plays, and then its game over. There is not an easy way to beat Mahomes, but the best way is to rush four and drop as many guys into coverage, which we saw New England do in their meeting with Kansas City earlier this year and it was probably the least Mahomes game we have seen from Mahomes all year.
It may seem like a death sentence to not rush many people and let Mahomes sit back there, but with the speed the Chiefs have on offense, playing man-to-man and blitzing is just going to lead to many big plays from the Chiefs. The Bucs have the bodies up front that they should be able to rush four, and the Chiefs will also be without their two starting tackles. Now that Vita Vea has returned for the Bucs, that is another body up front that could give the Chiefs trouble. The Bucs run defense is as good as any out there so they should be good in that department.
For the Bucs on offense, they need to continue to play balanced. While all the talk has been about Brady leading the Bucs to the Super Bowl, he hasn’t exactly been carrying them and has had his bad moments. He was bad in the second half of the NFC title game and almost allowed Green Bay to get back in the game. Brady has more experience than anyone in this game, and I no doubt expect him to show up this Sunday and play great.
The weakness of the Chiefs is their run defense, and the Bucs have been running the ball better as of late. They averaged 5.8 YPC in the first meeting, and that was when the running game wasn’t as good. This isn’t the best comparison, but I look at the Bucs similar to how the Broncos went about their offensive gameplan with John Elway in his last Super Bowl. They rode running back Terrell Davis and then had Elway make plays when they needed.
Leonard Fournette isn’t Terrell Davis, but Brady isn’t anywhere near as worn down as Elway was. So Fournette doesn’t need to play like an MVP, but he needs to be a factor. The last thing you want to do against the Chiefs is play their pace and get into a shootout, so if the Bucs can control the tempo and sustain long drives, they have a real good shot at winning this thing.
I think the Bucs have learned a lot since the last time they played the Chiefs. The offense is definitely better, and I have to think the defense is going to realize that they need to make guys other than Kelce and Hill beat them. I don’t think the Mahomes injury is much of a factor at all, but with a banged up offensive line, I think the Bucs can win the battles up front. That is the key to victory for me is who protects their quarterback better.
The Bucs offensive line has really been in sync down the stretch, and like I mentioned earlier, the Chiefs will be without both starting tackles. I think the Bucs front seven on defense is much better than what the Chiefs have on that side of the ball. We have seen Brady lose in Super Bowls when the opposing front seven has dominated his offensive line, and I could see that being the case for Mahomes and his team on Sunday. The Bucs also have playmakers like Devin White who I think has been the best defensive player throughout the entire NFL playoffs.
It is really hard to bet against Brady or Mahomes, but I will take my guy Brady here. Especially as an underdog. All the experience he has. I did not think the Bucs had it in them to get this far just because of how the operation is run down there, but the fact that they have gotten this far, I think Brady finishes the job. We are really going to see how much Brady misses Belichick, because if the Bucs roll out their same defensive game plan as the first meeting, they are cooked.
I have to think Brady has gone into Todd Bowles office and said, “hey if you do this, we are going to lose”. Brady was there with Belichick, so he has a clue of how they should be approaching Mahomes. I think if you can get the line at +3.5, that is an even better spot to be in. But I am fine taking the +3 and think they win this game outright. I know people love the idea of the over with these two quarterbacks, but Super Bowls are weird man. Many guys have said before, including Brady and Belichick, that the first quarter of the Super Bowl is about feeling the opponent out.
That is why for years Brady could never get his team to score in the first quarter. The Chiefs have also found themselves in many of their playoff games starting out slow before turning it out. Add in the fact that it is supposed to rain, which isn’t as big a factor as wind, but still not great. I am not saying take the under, because taking an under in a Mahomes vs. Brady game is insane, but I just think it is a no touch.
THE PICK: Tampa Bay +3
Super Bowl Prop Bets:
Coin Toss
I never follow this “tails never fails” shit. I have no idea why but every year in the Super Bowl and the National Championship, I ride with Heads. I will be riding with Heads again.
THE PICK: Heads
National Anthem: Over under: 1 minute 59 seconds
This is going to be a weird one to handicap given that two people are singing it. The last time there was two singers was in Super Bowl 40, and that hit 2 minutes and 8 seconds. The fact that they have to switch off could add a few seconds here and there, so I feel like the over has to be the play. There isn’t much history to ride on. Eric Church has never done it.
Jazmine Sullivan did it in the NHL once, and she clocked in at 1:38. A 21 second difference is a huge difference, but she was outside in the cold and the Super Bowl is a much bigger stage where they will be more likely to take longer. The over has hit in five of the last six anthems. I could see them trying to make it a big deal too with all the social justice and everything that has gone on in the past year and make a statement on the biggest stage.
THE PICK: Over 1 minute 59 seconds
Will a player raise a fist during the anthem? Yes: +1200 NO: -5000.
I love the value on yes here. This is a classic prop where Vegas knows, but just like how the NBA players made sure to make a statement on the biggest stage about social justice, I could absolutely see a player doing this. I know the league has tried to separate the games and these issues, but the players ultimately can make this decision.
THE PICK: Yes +1200
Will a player kneel during the anthem? Yes: +1200 NO: -5000
Same reasoning as above. I like yes here.
THE PICK: Yes +1200
Team to receive the opening kickoff? Tampa: -125 Chiefs: -115
I know the Super Bowl is a completely different game then the rest, but on a 50/50 prop, I will follow the trends here. Kansas City always defers. The last two times Tampa has won the toss, they have taken the ball. I also think it would be smart for Tampa to take the ball and try to set the tempo early in the game with a long, slow drive, to tell Kansas City that they aren’t going to get into a shootout with them.
THE PICK: Tampa -125
Will there be a defensive/special teams TD? Yes: +260 No: -300
I know you have to lay the juice here, but I am no on this one. I know Brady threw a pick six in a Super Bowl before, but do we really expect him or Mahomes to make that big of a mistake? I do not. Kickoff returns don’t even happen anymore, so I am banking on neither of these teams taking a punt to the house. I will ride no here.
THE PICK: NO
Color of the Gatorade poured on the Coach? Orange: -105. Red/Pink: +300.
Yellow/Green/Lime: +400. Clear/Gray/White: +500. Blue: +700. Purple: +700. None: +250.
This is probably the toughest prop to figure out at all. I know a lot of people would think, “oh both teams wear red, red is a good play”. History has shown that there has rarely ever been a correlation between a teams uniform color and the Gatorade the drink. The Pats did have Blue in two of their recent Super Bowls, but it rarely happens. Last year the Chiefs had orange, so if you think the Chiefs win, that is a good play. This is a type of bet where you want value, so for a value pick, I will go with clear. Orange and clear have happened more than any other color over the last twenty years.
THE PICK: Orange -105. Clear +500.
Super Bowl MVP
The obvious answer is to take Mahomes or Brady. In the 21 Super Bowls since 2000, a QB has won the award 13 times. I will be riding Brady at +175 but I will throw in some good value picks
Leonard Fournette +3000: Like I said earlier, the Bucs give me this weird Elway/Terrell Davis vibe with how they might approach this game. They ran the ball really well when these teams met earlier this year, and Fournette has been really good in the playoffs. Brady throws him the ball too so he will be heavily involved in the offense.
Tyreek Hill +900: Hill torched the Bucs the first time. He is such a gamebreaker that if he has a few of those big plays he could be up for the award here. If he can have another 200 yard performance and is responsible for a majority of the Chiefs offense, he could have a good shot at the award.
Devin White +4000: The last defensive player to win the award was Von Miller in Super Bowl 50. He had to go off in that game to get the award and with how good these QBs are, I don’t see him winning. He will most likely need a Touchdown to win it but if he can force a couple turnovers and if the game is low scoring, he has a shot. He has been the best defensive player in the playoffs and he should be all over the field.
Good luck to everyone this weekend!
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