Piece by Ryan Maguire
Welcome back! We are down to the final four. Buffalo vs. Kansas City. Tampa Bay vs. Green Bay. The future of the league on one side and then the old bucks on the other. Championship weekend is one of the best weekends of the year and I think these are both going to be really good games. After a tough weekend on Wild Card Weekend, I cleaned up on the divisional round going 3-1 on picks (123-116-9) and 1-0 on leans (49-46-1).
Some updated stats:
Favorites: 2-2 ATS (116-142-8)
Home Teams: 2-2 ATS (126-131-8)
Underdogs: 1-3 SU (88-175-1)
Over/Under: 1-3 (129-131-6)
Nothing too crazy about this weekend. With the games being more important, we are seeing the better teams come out with wins, and more defense being played. This will be an interesting weekend with having three of the best quarterbacks in the league plus an up and comer in Josh Allen. Looking forward to it and lets dive into it.
ODDS via Oddsshark
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers (-3.5) O/U: 52
This is the game of the weekend. No disrespect to Mahomes or Josh Allen, but for the past ten years people were begging for a Brady vs. Rodgers or a Brady vs. Brees Super Bowl. We won’t be getting a Super Bowl, but a NFC title matchup with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line is the next best thing. Two future HOFs. This could be the last time that these two face off in a game of this magnitude. Can Brady lead his team to three straight road playoff victories? Something that he has never done in his career, mainly because he usually had the bye and home playoff games, but you get the point. Will Rodgers career’ continue to be a bit underachieving given how talented he is? Brady can just keep adding to his legacy, Rodgers needs to cement his.
Lets’ take a look at a little history here. Brady is 9-4 in Conference Championship Games, but is just 3-3 when those games have been played on the road. In those six games, he threw for 1489 yards, 6 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, and completed 60% of his passes. Those are definitely not great stats for Tom Brady’s standards. This is going to be the true test to how much Brady can do without Belichick. He doesn’t have the coach on his sideline, and he doesn’t have the home field advantage that Gillette Stadium was for them during that run.
The playing field is finally leveled and this is going to be one of the toughest games of Brady’s entire career. Luckily for Brady, Rodgers hasn’t been great in these games either. Unlike Brady, Rodgers has never hosted a conference title game, and he has complained about that before, but he will finally get his wish. That is why this year feels like it just might be the Packers year. They finally get the game at home, they finally have a team and a defense and a coach around Rodgers, and the draft pick of Jordon Love lit a fire under Rodgers similar to when Brady went off after the Patriots drafted Garoppolo. In four career conference title games, Rodgers is 1-3 with 1035 yards, 6 TDs, 7 INTs, for a 63.5% completion rate. It is crazy to think that two guys that are this good have these type of stats, but that is just playoff football. You aren’t going to see fantasy football type stats this time of year.
Another thing to look at is Tampa Bay’s best win of the season, and Green Bay’s worst loss of the year, came when Tampa Bay blasted the Packers 38-10 in Tampa earlier this year. The Packers actually began the game up 10-0, and had the ball, but a Rodgers pick six completely changed the game and the Bucs never looked back. So I do wonder if this could just be a bad matchup for the Packers. It may have to do with how the Packers approach the defensive side of the ball. The Packers play zone about 75% of the time, and as we have seen with the Steelers and many others, when you play zone against Brady, he is going to torch you.
Is Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine just another one of these “we are just going to do what we do and play how we play” type of coaches? Or is he going to realize that Brady will torch your zone defense and that you need to adjust and change things up and dial up some pressure up the middle, the only proven method to getting Brady and his timing off his game. In 13 career games against Mike Pettine defenses, Brady is 10-3 with 24 TDs to just 7 INTs. Brady wasn’t great in the game earlier this year (17-27, 166 YDS, 2 TDS). So it isn’t like Brady torched them, but he played well enough and the game really did flip on momentum after Rodgers threw that pick six. Both teams ran the ball effectively (4.5 YPC) and with Tampa’s run game improving, I think they should be able to run the ball.
I really hope both these QBs play better than they have in these games in the past, and give us the game for the ages that we are looking for. I just feel like they have to. I think this one comes down to who gets the ball last, and I can easily see a 28-24 game, which I know would be a push, so maybe the idea is to buy a point but I will bank on them being able to score one more point and push this one over. Two of the best to ever do it, I think they put on a show. I will also lean the Bucs because I just can’t bet against Brady here. Rodgers seems to just not care about these games as much and him and his teams never seem to rise to the occasion. Unlike Brady, who is the ultimate winner.
I wish I could have rooted for Brady to win more this year, but the annoying national and local sports media talk about Brady vs. Bill has ruined me being able to enjoy the end of Tom Brady’s historic career. That is so annoying since he is still playing at such a high level, but for some reason the media has to make it Bill vs. Tom even though anyone with a brain knows it took both of them to achieve what they did. Bill was the reason they won many games, and Brady was the reason they won so many games. It is that simple. So while part of me will be rooting for them to lose so I can stop hearing about this whole battle between Brady and Bill, I just can’t bet against this man for the second week in a row. I will lean the points with them.
THE PICK: Over 52 LEANS: Bucs +3.5
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (-3) O/U: 54
The nightcap. Some have been saying this could be a preview of the changing of the guard from the Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Big Ben era to this new era. Mahomes, the most electrifying in the game, and a rising star in Josh Allen. As of this writing Mahomes has been cleared from the concussion protocol and will be a full go come Sunday Night.
These two teams met earlier this year, and the Chiefs got the best of them 26-17. To be fair, the Bills were in a weird spot of their schedule due to other teams’ covid issues where they just had to play the Titans on a Tuesday when they thought they had KC on Thursday, and then played KC the next Monday. Just weird timing, but nonetheless, the Chiefs won round one. That was all the way back in October, and a lot has changed since. For all the shit I gave the Bills throughout the year and saying I didn’t believe in them, well they shoved that down my throat. I think they have been the best team in football heading into the postseason.
They won 11 of their last 12, including 8 in a row, with the loss being the Hail Mary loss to Arizona back in November. They were dominating teams down the stretch. The Chiefs on the other hand, while they were winning, they didn’t look great doing it. Yea you would see them make some explosive plays here and there, but they were barely getting by teams like the Panthers, Falcons, Broncos, Raiders, and Dolphins. They just have that feeling where they just think they can flip the switch whenever they want. As if they are the 2004 Patriots. And they aren’t built like that. They are built like the Peyton Manning Colts or the 2013 Broncos.
These high flying offenses think they can flip a switch and when they finally run into someone that can punch them in the mouth, they can fold up. I am not saying I think the Chiefs will fold, and maybe they can flip the switch, but they are doing this way too early. One Super Bowl and they think they are untouchable and unbeatable. Even those 04 Patriots weren’t doing that, and they had both great offense and defense. They were still kicking the crap out of teams week in week out. The Chiefs haven’t been burying teams and are just barely getting by. Playing like that usually doesn’t end well because it will catch up to you. If their offense struggles one week, I am not sure their defense can save them. The Bills have players at all three levels on defense so they should be able to make this a game and give the Chiefs some problems.
Another huge test for Josh Allen. This is easily the biggest stage he has ever played. He is lucky for getting a pass for last week because it looked like no one could play offense in those terrible weather conditions. Weather shouldn’t be a factor this week so he has no excuses this week. He has had a bad fumble late in both of these playoff games that could have been game changing if the Bills didn’t recover them. So he has almost made those Josh Allen type mistakes that I have talked about in the past, but he is lucky enough that the ball bounced the Bills way. It won’t always bounce his way and if he gives the ball away to the Chiefs, they are going to make you pay. The Bills need to go back to being more balanced instead of putting it all on Allen, and they should be able to run it on a subpar Chiefs run defense.
This is a tough game to cap. You don’t get rich betting against Mahomes. But I don’t think the Chiefs are as unstoppable as people think. I mean if the Browns just didn’t keep shooting themselves in the foot, they could have upset them last week. I also don’t think he is 100%. But on the other hand, are the Bills really ready for THIS moment. I have been saying it all year about the division and being a playoff team, and they passed those tests. But this is the biggest game for the Bills in the past 25-30 years. They also haven’t looked great in either playoff games, which you could spin either way. Are they trending the wrong way? Or is it a good sign that they are winning and haven’t even played their best game yet? So I am going to stay away from the side and take the under.
With Mahomes banged up, and the Bills offense not looking great, I think this is way too many points. I usually say taking an under when Mahomes is playing is a death trap, but he is hurt and that offense really hasn’t been as good as it has in the past. I think a lot of people look at the offenses and how good the QBs this year, and would right away love the over. But if you actually look at the games they have played lately and how they both look on offense, you should be liking the under. It is late January, and cold, and I expect a lower scoring playoff game than what this total reflects. Also think too, everyone was expecting the Browns and Chiefs to go way over 57, and it didn’t come close. Take the under to the bank.
THE PICK: Under 54
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