Piece by Lou Pastor
On Friday afternoon, the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins publicly announced a blockbuster deal in which San Francisco acquired the No.3 overall pick in 2021 in exchange for the No.12 overall pick in 2021, a 2022 1st round pick, a 2022 3rd round compensatory pick, and a 2023 1st round pick.
What Will The Niners Do?
According to betting markets, Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence is practically a lock to be selected with the No.1 overall pick by the Jaguars, and BYU QB Zach Wilson is strongly favored - but not locked in - to be selected by the Jets No.2 overall.
The 49ers are almost certainly going to draft a quarterback with the 3rd overall pick, as they would not mortgage so many future assets for a non-QB. With Lawrence and Wilson likely off the board, it is natural to wonder which QB prospect Kyle Shanahan has identified as worth spending three 1st round picks on. The most likely options are Ohio State QB Justin Fields, Alabama QB Mac Jones, and North Dakota State QB Trey Lance.
I’ve spent decent time studying all of the top 2021 QB prospects, and I feel strongly that Mac Jones best fits Kyle Shanahan’s style of quarterback. Jones lacks mobility, arm strength, and velocity, but he is a rhythmic passer who can dissect NFL defenses and win with anticipation and accuracy. Mac Jones could execute a Shanahan-style offense similarly to many other quarterbacks who have succeeded under Kyle Shanahan’s tutelage, such as Matt Schaub, Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, and Jimmy Garoppolo.
Part of my case for Mac Jones going to the 49ers at 3 is a case against Justin Fields and Trey Lance. Justin Fields, who is the current favorite to go to SF on betting sites, doesn’t seem like a great fit with Kyle Shanahan’s style when I watch Fields’ tape. Justin Fields ran a very college-like offense at Ohio State, in that he wasn’t required to go through progressions and dissect defenses pre-snap the way some of the other 2021 QB prospects were. Also, Fields is not even close to Mac Jones as a short to intermediate passer; Justin Fields had relatively shaky accuracy on shorter throws, especially on plays where the first read was unavailable. Lastly, Justin Fields was terrible against the blitz, as he took sacks far too frequently. Fields’ rushing ability would be interesting behind San Francisco’s powerful offensive line, but I don’t see his passing precision warranting three 1st round picks. The argument in favor of Fields is that he could be groomed for a year behind Jimmy Garoppolo, which would give Fields time to mature to NFL speeds and playbooks.
I think that the 49ers are taking Mac Jones, but I wouldn’t be shocked if San Francisco took Justin Fields. I would, however, be shocked if Kyle Shanahan decided to spend three 1st round picks on Trey Lance. Lance is an outstanding runner, but he is a much more primitive passer than Justin Fields. Trey Lance has phenomenal arm strength and physical traits, but he’s easily the least accurate of the five projected 1st round QBs. Lance is worth a 1st round pick, but it would be stunning to see him get selected by the San Francisco 49ers 3rd overall.
There’s some buzz around the idea that the trade between San Francisco and Miami was announced soon after the 49ers watched Trey Lance’s pro-day. My rebuttal is that the 49ers are too smart of an organization to get persuaded into such an impulsive decision. Do you really think that Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch were fist-pumping in an office after impetuously sacrificing three 1st round picks and a 3rd round pick over one pro-day? The 49ers have probably been studying this QB class intently for the past two years and finally made up their mind.
Betting markets disagree with my assessment of the situation for now, as Justin Fields is favored to go to San Francisco, with Trey Lance as a distant second option. I highly recommend betting the under on Mac Jones’ over/under draft selection of 9.5 and Mac Jones to be the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, if your sportsbook has those odds.
What Does This Mean For Jimmy Garoppolo?
As far as what happens with Jimmy Garoppolo, I think that the 49ers will keep him as their starting QB for 2021. I view Jimmy Garoppolo as an above-average starting QB who has a quick release and good accuracy. Garoppolo has received a lot of criticism over the past year, but the reality is that Kyle Shanahan’s record as a head coach in the NFL is 24-9 (73 win%) with Garoppolo and 7-27 (21 win%) without Jimmy G. The 49ers will remain a Super Bowl contender with Jimmy Garoppolo in 2021, but a rookie QB will be waiting in the wings for the 2022 season, similarly to how the Kansas City Chiefs groomed Patrick Mahomes behind Alex Smith (not to say that this rookie will be anything close to Mahomes, of course). Jimmy Garoppolo is a solid quarterback and good teammate; he’ll probably land on his feet as the Patriots’ starting QB in 2022. The bottom line, though, is that I don't expect San Francisco to trade Jimmy Garoppolo before the 2021 season, despite all of the speculation surrounding a Garoppolo trade.
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