Article by: Adam Cichoski
This whole draft process I’ve had to endure one of the worst hot takes in recent memories and it was a very popular one. That the New York Jets should commit to Sam Darnold and build around him as their future. The Jets finally killed that narrative Monday when they traded Darnold to the Carolina Panthers for a 2021 fourth-round pick along with a 2022 second and sixth-round pick. Something that I personally thought was obvious when the Eagles traded back from 6 after trying to trade up to get Zach Wilson without avail.
My reasons for loathing the “Jets should build around Darnold” take is more than just, “Sam Darnold bad.” When you really look at the situation, themoving off the Darnold was the only choice the Jets had no matter how uncomfortable it was.
In the modern NFL the trend seems to be find a quarterback, identify if he’s good or not quickly by surrounding him with talent, then move forward accordingly. The Browns did it with Baker Mayfield and he finally broke out last season, the Bills did it with Josh Allen and he did the same. The Broncos did it with Drew Lock and he’s still awful so now they know it’s safe to move on.
The mistake the Jets made was they didn’t surround Darnold with talent. They committed to a head coach who was clearly terrible in Adam Gase and the general manager who drafted Darnold, Mike McCagnan, was so incredibly terrible at his job. Despite drafting Darnold, he didn’t do anything to actually help him, instead deciding to draft a bunch of developmental defensive pieces, which got him fired following the 2019 NFL Draft.
The Jets’ front office’s incompetence now puts us in an awkward situation where a year away from a contract season, we actually have no idea if Darnold is good or not. Now, I’d argue he hasn’t been but we’ll get to that later because there’s a more present problem with sticking with Darnold if you’re the Jets.
Quarterbacks are expensive. Really expensive. Even IF Darnold breaks out. And that’s a big “if”. You now need to pay him and the Jets are trying to rebuild, you can’t afford to pay a quarterback, especially one that’s given you three seasons of bad and one, theoretical, season of good.
Darnold may not command top dollar, but mid-level starters still eat up cap space. Quarterbacks like Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garapollo and Ryan Tannehill are all making between $20-$30 million. Assuming the Jets draft Zach Wilson No. 2 overall, they’ll likely pay him $7-$8 million range, that money saved could afford two quality starters.
Like I said though, Darnold being good next year is a big if, because Darnold has not been good in the NFL. When you watch his highlight tape, he’s incredible. Also, draft priors are a powerful thing. There are still people out there who believe Josh Rosen just never got a fair shot despite being given two fair shots and blowing both of them. Coming out of college, Darnold was the consensus best quarterback in that draft, the Browns shocked everyone when they took Mayfield instead. Since we don’t actually know if Darnold is good or not we look at his high-level plays and we watch his college tape and we shake our heads and insist, no, he’s good! Is he?
Over the course of his career, Darnold has under 60% completion percentage, in his best season he just barely broke 3,000 passing yards, and his touchdown to interception ratio is 45-39. If we look at his PFF, it’s not much better. He’s never had an overall grade over 65 and he’s gotten worse each year since coming out. This past season he finished with a 52.7 passing grade, only Dwayne Haskins, who was cut midseason, had a worse grade among qualifying quarterbacks.
With that said, I think all the arguments being made in Sam Darnold’s defense are valid. He really didn’t have any help around him and he really did have a coach who seems to make everyone not named Peyton Manning worse.
However, that does not guarantee that he’ll be able to turn it around. And if he did I still wouldn’t want to pay him.
I hope Joe Brady finds a way to bring the best out of Darnold, and maybe he does. But as for the Jets, this was the right choice. Regardless of if Zach Wilson hits.