Piece by: Joshua Julian
The prevailing assumption among the community of NBA fans is that the 2020-21 champions will be the Nets. According to OddsShark, the Nets are the current favorite to win the championship, at +230, with the Lakers a relatively distant 2nd, with +500 odds. And while the additions of Blake Griffin and James Harden have made the already formidable Nets that much more intimidating, the fact of the matter is this: it will not be an easy jaunt to the title for the Nets. Yes, they have star-power coming out of their ears, but there is an extremely specific flaw that this Nets team has, not to mention the path that they will have to travel to get to the Finals.
The regular season wrapped up on Sunday, and after the seeding was finalized, the Nets learned they would end up playing the winner of the Boston Celtics vs. Washington Wizards play-in game. Depending on the winner of this game, there could be a bit of difficulty awaiting the Nets in the first round. If the Celtics win, the Nets should easily handle them. The Celtics have struggled all year with consistency and, surprisingly, defense, finishing a ho-hum 13th on the season in defensive rating, a far cry from the typically elite Boston defenses of the past few years.
The loss of Jaylen Brown to a wrist injury will do that defense no favors, let alone the offense, which finished 10th on the season. As for the Wizards, while the Nets should still come out the winner, it would take an extra game or two compared to the Celtics. Yes, the Wizards finished 17th and 20th in offensive and defensive rating, respectively, but those are season long marks. Since April, the Wiz have gone 17-9 and forced their way back into the play-in discussion. Their defense was much improved, posting a 108 mark in April that was 3rd that month. And here’s where that fatal flaw comes into play: the Nets can’t defend. On the season, the Nets ranked 22nd in defensive rating, 23rd in defensive rebound rate, 27th in steals per game, and 29th in 2nd chance points. So, while the Wizards have not had a great defense for most of the year, neither have the Nets. The biggest difference is, the Nets are 1st in the NBA in offensive rating, and that’s with all the games missed from Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and Harden.
The biggest problem could arise in the 2nd round. Depending on who wins, the Nets could be facing either the Milwaukee Bucks or the Miami Heat. Color me a Heat skeptic. They haven’t had anything near the juice they showed last year, and the Bucks have shown a more adaptable style this year, as opposed to their more rigid system from the last two seasons. And if the Nets meet the Bucks in the 2nd round, the Nets could see an early exit from the playoffs.
That’s right, you heard it here first: the super-team Brooklyn Nets could lose in the 2nd round. Let’s break down why. Instead of stats, let’s keep it nice and simple: the Bucks can defend anyone. In their starting line-up, they have three plus defenders. Giannis Antetokounmpo won Defensive Player of the Year last season, and his arms stretch farther than Stretch Armstrong. He’s not the greatest on-ball defender, but he’s a good rim protector and has the length to at least cause some discomfort on the ball. Jrue Holiday has been one of the top backcourt defenders for the past three years, and that has not changed at all this season.
He tied a career high in steals per game with 1.6 and can capably defend either guard spot. Add Khris Middleton, a long and switchable wing who can guard 2-4, and you have three switchy defenders who are capable of causing havoc. And this doesn’t even include Brook Lopez, a fantastic, albeit immobile, rim protector who can anchor the middle of a defense. Oh yeah, they also have P.J. Tucker and Donte DiVincenzo on the squad too, with Tucker in particular known around the league for his ability to toil with big men while also switching onto guards in space.
So, here’s where the problem arises: if the Bucks can at least slow down the Nets, will the Nets be able to slow down the Bucks? No, they won’t. Kyrie Irving has never been known as much of an on-ball defender. Ditto for James Harden, although he’s better than the reputation he’s garnered. Kevin Durant is a useful off-ball creator of havoc, but on-ball? He’s a little too skinny to rumble with bigger scorers, and smaller ones can exploit him. Not to mention Brooklyn lacks any sort of rim protection, seeing as DeAndre Jordan is way past his prime, Blake Griffin was never much of a shot blocker in his prime, and Nicolas Claxton is raw. So, while Milwaukee has a guy to throw at each of Irving (Holiday), Harden (Middleton), and Durant (Giannis), who do the Nets have to throw at the Bucks?
A travesty of a narrative has been survived this season: the Bucks have been solved and are therefore not a threat. And while, yes, the Bucks have been “solved” the last few seasons, there are a few caveats to that statement that must be considered here. Both times, they were solved by elite coaches with tons of defenders to “build the wall” that stopped Giannis both times. In the 2018-19 playoffs, it was the Raptors, led by defensive genius Nick Nurse, who slowed down Giannis, using the long arms of Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Kawhi Leonard, and Danny Green to bother and pester Giannis all series.
Next year, it was the Heat, led by Erik Spoelstra, that used the same formula and employed the likes of Andre Iguodala, Jae Crowder, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Derrick Jones Jr to snuff out Giannis’s drives to the rim. Not to mention, this season the Bucks have been experimenting with using Giannis as a screener more and putting the ball in the hands of Holiday and Middleton as the primary playmakers.
So, if the Bucks were to face the Nets, who would the Nets have to “build the wall”? Jeff Green? Bruce Brown? Landry Shamet? Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot? Exactly. Not only would the Nets be facing a more adaptable and diverse Bucks offense, but they would be doing so without the personnel to bother Giannis the way the Raptors and Heat did.
The Nets have a roster laden with superstars. They have three of the 10 best pure scorers of all-time. But the playoffs tend to come down to defense, and the Nets do not have the personnel to keep pace with these elite defensive teams they will run across. We didn’t even cover what could happen if they ran into the 76ers if they somehow made it past Milwaukee to the conference finals. That’s because, to be brutally honest, the Nets won’t make it that far. If they run into the Bucks in the 2nd round, and the Bucks are fully healthy, give me the Bucks in 6.
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