Piece Written By William Gifford
We as NBA fans can’t help but feel optimistic about our team’s future. Over a third of NBA franchises have yet to win their first NBA title, however we still find a way to talk ourselves into one for our team year after year. The league is as deep as it has been in over a decade with the fall of the Warriors and Lebron leaving the East. For a large chunk of franchises, a championship isn’t that much of a stretch. For others, it seems unfathomable that they make the playoffs in the next 5 years, much less win a title. For this exercise, I am going to write from the most optimistic perspective I can, even in the direst of circumstances (looking at you Detroit.) I will be writing these in a series of a sort, featuring one team from the East and one from the West in every column.
Atlanta Hawks
While the trade that sent Luka Dončić to Dallas in return for Trae Young and a pick that translated to Cam Reddish hasn’t proven to be the catastrophe that some expected, it still stings a little if you are a Hawks fan. Nonetheless, Young is still a special player whose offensive game can be matched by only a handful of guys.
The supporting cast also has a lot of promise. It will be interesting to see how Clint Capela and John Collins work together in a league that keeps getting smaller, but both of them mesh really well with top tier playmakers like Young. One has to imagine that both De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish take a few steps forward in these upcoming years. Both players have the same problem to address: learning how to shoot the ball with even an inkling of efficiency. Both Hunter and Reddish have Player Efficiency Ratings below 10. An average PER is 15, making both players more than 33% less efficient than the average NBA basketball player. Hunter and Reddish rank 2nd and 4th worst in that category among players with comparable minutes. Is it somewhat of a stretch to anticipate those two to grow to be league average scorers? Perhaps, but just that improvement alone from those two players in the coming years will lead to a whole lot of wins in Atlanta.
The other glaring problem the Hawks face is the historically bad defense teamwide. As a team, the Hawks are third from the bottom in the league in defensive rating, sitting at a staggering 115 points allowed per 100 possessions. For context, this number ranks 5th worst in NBA history since 1980. I understand league scoring is nearing all-time highs, but the 5th worst defensive team in 40 years? That’s remarkably bad. The defensive prowess (or lack thereof) is headlined by Trae Young’s efforts. Look, I get it, for a guy with the stature of Young, it is almost impossible to become a good defender in today’s NBA. What I am looking for, however, is for him not to be the absolute worst.
It has been talked about ever since Young was a prospect in Norman, the dude flat out just does not try. And in a league that is riddled with high skill guards that Young has to match up against, it’s a miracle the Hawks don’t give up 140 points a night. He isn’t the only culprit, however, with the young core of Collins, Hunter, Reddish, and Kevin Huerter (as well as guys like Jabari Parker and the decrepit Vince Carter playing decent amounts) not exactly helping the cause. With aging and experience comes more muscle for some guys, as well as better defensive instincts. The offense is going to develop just fine, so getting this team to a league-average defensive level should be the top priority for Loyd Pierce’s coaching staff.
Now, say we get the improvements out of Hunter and Reddish offensively and the team becomes around average defensively. Is this a Finals capable team? Probably not, but with these next two years almost undoubtedly landing them two more lottery picks, one hit with a decent NBA starter could put them in the conversation within the next 5 years. There are still a whole lot of question marks with this franchise, but they have their superstar which can be the hardest part of building a Finals contender. There is a lot of work to do in Atlanta, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Commissioner Silver handing over The Larry O’Brien in 2026 to the Atlanta Hawks.
Dallas Mavericks
It’s fitting that the corresponding teams alphabetically in the Eastern and Western Conference are Dallas and Atlanta. These are two franchises that will be perceived in the same vein for years to come. Dallas seemingly received the better half of the Luka Dončić and Trae Young draft night trade, even with Cam Reddish in the mix. Dončić, in his first two years, has more than lived up to all the hype coming out of Europe pre-draft. He has solidified himself as a top ten player in the league, which is a rarity for many players his age. If you were to take a poll of executives around the league, I would place a pretty hefty wager on Dončić being the most sought after player to build a team around moving forward. This is a player that can swing a playoff series and carry his team to a title in the next 5 years easily. To put in perspective how good Dončić is, here are the leaders in Value Over Replacement Player in an age 20 or younger season in the three-point era (1979-present):
2004-2005 LeBron James - 9.1 (Jesus Christ)
2005-2006 Chris Paul - 5.1
1979-1980 Magic Johnson - 4.8
2019-2020 Luka Dončić - 4.7 (in 20 fewer games than every player ahead of him)
So yes, Luka is that special, and he will be getting better, which is scary for the rest of the league.
Remember when the Knicks gave up Kristaps Porzingis for pretty much nothing? The Knicks have been so dysfunctional for the last 20 years that I feel as if that trade gets swept under the rug. But alas, Porzingis is a Maverick now, and he is still really really good. His knee injury was timed in a way that he pretty much missed a full 20 months of action. The League just kept on going by without Porzingis and I think we all kind of forgot about him. The “Latvian Unicorn” is still not only a really solid offensive player, but also a high tier defensive player as well. He also happens to be a perfect screen and roll player to pair with Luka. He is also only 24. Kristaps feels as if he has been in the League for 7 years, but no, he has yet to reach his physical prime. The tandem of Porzingis and Dončić will be one you get very familiar with watching in big playoff games over the next 5 years.
The biggest question mark surrounding the Mavericks m reaching their perceived potential is the injury bug. Dwight Powell tore his achilles earlier this year, which proved to be detrimental to the team before we all got trapped inside our houses. Kristaps obviously has a lengthy history with leg problems, and, standing at 7’3”, it is something he will be more susceptible to than most other guys. Even Luka has had his fair share of missed games. It was a sprained ankle, so less chronic and more fluky, but still, something to keep an eye on.
Another question surrounding this team is who is the third best player on this team? Is it Delon Wright? Seth Curry? Tim Hardaway? I’m not completely sold on any of those players as of yet. Michael Jordan had Paxton and Rodman, LeBron had Love and Bosh. Who is going to be the third guy that can hit a big shot in a playoff game when you least expect it? I think there is potential for one of those listed to develop into that role. Another route is Mark Cuban going into a free agent meeting and saying to a prospective number 3, “Hey, we have Luka and Kristaps, we can win a championship this year if you join on.” It's a pretty nice pitch in my opinion. I’m not sure who that player is really, but there's one thing for certain: Luka and the Mavs will be in our lives for the next 5, if not 10 years, as title contenders.