Piece by: Lou Pastor
1. The New England Patriots were the biggest winners of the 2021 NFL Draft - I’m a bit biased, as I had Mac Jones as the third-best quarterback prospect going into the 2021 NFL Draft, but I think that New England got an all-time steal with Mac sliding all the way down to 15 overall. I still don’t understand the public criticism of Mac Jones. What’s the difference between Mac Jones’s resume this year and Joe Burrow’s resume going into the 2020 draft?
Both guys had ridiculously efficient college seasons playing with a ton of NFL talent. Mac may not be as muscularly jacked as Burrow, but Mac Jones’s college resume made him a top 5 overall pick in my eyes. When I watch Mac Jones, I see a Matt Ryan - type NFL QB. I think that San Francisco, Atlanta, Miami, Detroit, Carolina, Denver, New York (Giants), Chicago, Philadelphia, and Minnesota will all regret not selecting Jones ten years from now. The fact that New England didn’t even have to trade up for Mac will only make it that much funnier in hindsight - a classic example of a smart organization feasting on the errors of less intelligent teams.
The Patriots continued their excellent draft by selecting a 1st round - caliber defensive tackle in round 2, a versatile edge-rusher in round 3, and a sleeper running back in round 4. The New England Patriots are back as a Super Bowl contending team.
2. The Carolina Panthers will rue the day - While I liked the Terrace Marshall Jr, Tommy Tremble, and Daviyon Nixon picks a lot, I can’t help but feel as though the Panthers missed a tremendous opportunity with their 8th overall pick, as both Mac Jones and Justin Fields were available to draft. The worst part of Carolina’s decision is that they passed up two promising QB prospects for Sam Darnold - an underwhelming player who has yet to play a great NFL game in three years. Since Matt Rhule has taken over, the Carolina Panthers have overpaid Christian McCaffrey, overpaid Teddy Bridgewater, drafted a run-stopping DT 7th overall, went 5-11, traded a 2nd round pick for Sam Darnold, and passed up on both Mac Jones and Justin Fields. Unless there are dramatic improvements on the field this season, I might have to start calling Matt Rhule “Matt Patricia 2.0”.
3. Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock have failed - I knew that the Raiders made a big mistake giving Jon Gruden a 10 year, $100 M contract in 2018, but even I figured that the Raiders would be further along by now. In three seasons with the Raiders, Jon Gruden has gone 19-29 (39.5 win%) with zero playoff appearances. Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock have built the definition of an average football team with the epitome of an average QB at the center of it. Remember when the Raiders got a ton of valuable draft picks for star defensive end Khalil Mack? Well, as we’ve found out, draft picks are only valuable if the drafters don’t light them on fire by reaching for day-two prospects every year.
After an unimpressive 2018 draft class, Jon Gruden spent his three precious 1st round picks in 2019 on Clelin Ferrell (No.4), Josh Jacobs (No.24), and Jonathan Abram (No.27). Ferrell and Jacobs are solid but safe players who don’t move the needle for your franchise. Jonathan Abram, though, is far worse, as Abram has been one of the worst coverage players in the NFL since he has entered the league.
Going into the 2019 NFL draft, I viewed Abram as a 5th round nickel linebacker, and he has gotten burned in coverage over and over again. Last season, the Raiders reached for CB Damon Arnette (No.19), and Arnette struggled mightily in coverage as a rookie. Also, Las Vegas didn’t even use Henry Ruggs III in ways that would unlock his potential as a deep threat. Now in 2021, the Raiders took another 2nd round player in the middle of round 1 with Alex Leatherwood. Not only are there problems with player evaluations, but the coaching staff clearly has issues utilizing the skills of the players they have. LaMarcus Joyner - a skillful coverage safety - was forced to play as a slot corner for the Raiders, and his play was problematic because he was playing out of position. Meanwhile, Gruden was totally fine with letting Jonathan Abram - one of the least intelligent coverage players I’ve ever watched - run (10 yards) behind guys like Tyreek Hill downfield.
These critiques are basic evaluations. The Raiders now have a questionable o-line, receiving corps, secondary, and linebacking corps surrounding an average quarterback and below-average coaching staff. If Las Vegas doesn’t land Aaron Rodgers, I’m hammering their under 7.5 win total for the 2021 season.
4. Look out for the New York Giants landing a big-name QB via trade - Despite being too confident in quarterback Daniel Jones, the Giants have actually assembled a very solid roster around their young QB. New York has a good enough o-line, decent receivers, a talented running back, a loaded defensive line, mediocre linebackers, and a talented secondary packed with depth. The Giants also quietly added 1st, 3rd, and 4th round picks in 2022 by trading down twice this past draft. New York is a big market, the roster is good outside of QB, there are future assets to trade, and there is a trio of disgruntled star quarterbacks to trade for. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Giants landed either Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, or Deshaun Watson in the next two years.
5. The Cleveland Browns are one of the sharpest NFL organizations - I’ve graded the Browns’ drafts highly since 2018, and Cleveland continues to impress me with how they’ve allocated the spending on their roster. The Browns have paid attention to reloading the secondary with skillful coverage players frequently, bolstering the offensive line, and maintaining good pass rushers and catchers. Cleveland stumbled twice at head coach with Hue Jackson and Freddy Kitchens, but Kevin Stefanski is an analytically sound decision-maker who designed a very successful offense last season. One of the NFL’s most snake-bitten franchises has turned the tables dramatically.
6. Are the Bills really a “smart” team? - Many in the media have crowned Buffalo as one of the sharp organizations of the NFL, but I’m not certain that they are. I haven’t liked a Bills’ draft class since 2018, outside of trading a 1st round pick and some change for WR Stefon Diggs in 2020. The reality is that Josh Allen was a below-average NFL quarterback in 2018 and 2019 until he exploded as an elite player in 2020. Does the Bills’ coaching staff deserve credit for helping Josh Allen improve? Yes. Did the Bills smartly build a good o-line and set of receivers around Allen? Also yes. Does Josh Allen deserve credit for improving his game? Of course. My question is: how are the Bills any different from teams like Denver or Chicago? Bills fans may not want to hear it, but Josh Allen’s play in 2018 and 2019 put him in the company of players like Drew Lock and Mitchell Trubisky. The Broncos and Bears both built good rosters around their young QBs, but Lock and Trubisky didn’t develop at all the way that Josh Allen was able to. The Bills used a flawed process to yield fantastic results. All due respect to Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs, but I’m not yet convinced that the Buffalo Bills are as sharp an organization as people in the media seem to believe.
7. The 49ers screwed up - Not only would I have taken Mac Jones over Trey Lance straight-up, but Mac Jones would have been available at No.12 without giving up three 1st round picks. I trust that Kyle Shanahan will develop Trey Lance well, but the reality is that San Francisco completely overpaid for the 3rd overall pick. Unless Trey Lance becomes a top-five NFL quarterback, this trade will be remembered as a massive mismanagement of assets by the Niners. Also, there seemed to be some internal disagreement about which quarterback to select at No.3, which is not what you want when you mortgage that many future draft picks.
8. The Bears aren’t necessarily draft winners - It appears that I’m in the minority, but I thought that Mac Jones was a substantially better QB prospect than Justin Fields was going into the 2021 NFL draft. Even if I excuse the selection of Fields over Jones, the Bears gave up two 2022 draft picks - including their 1st round selection - to trade up for Justin Fields. Bears fans are probably relieved to start fresh with a promising rookie quarterback instead of Andy Dalton, but Justin Fields will have to be great to justify the price-tag and there are a few on-field red flags surrounding Fields’ play.
9. The NFL Draft is more exciting than the Super Bowl - The NFL Draft is my favorite football event of the year. The Super Bowl is exciting, but it’s a singular game. The draft has a unique blend of debate, gossip, and suspense that is unlike anything else. I love making mock drafts, betting draft props, and evaluating prospects. The vast array of college conferences, team ideologies, and player-types make the NFL Draft a giant, dramatic crapshoot. It’s crazy to consider how the order of the rest of the draft could be altered by one team’s decision early on. What’s equally interesting is how one player could have a totally different career depending on which team drafts him. We were lucky in 2021, as there were several suspenseful dominos that fell, shaping the NFL’s landscape for years to come.
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